2025 Business & Economic Outlook - Part 1 of 5
(Based on insights from Alex Chausovsky, Bundy Group, shared at Allied Executives’ 2025 Business & Economic Outlook)
The last few years have trained business leaders to live in a constant state of reaction—tariffs, policy shifts, labor shortages, and inflation. But as Alex Chausovsky reminded us at our recent Business & Economic Outlook event, what we’re facing now isn’t uncertainty anymore. Its complexity.
That distinction matters.
Uncertainty paralyzes. It makes you wait for perfect information before you act. Complexity demands movement. It says, you’ve done hard before—now do it smarter.
The Shift That Changes Everything
Alex explained it this way: when conditions are uncertain, you’re guessing. When they’re complex, you’re analyzing, testing, adjusting. You’ve already built the muscle to adapt, COVID forced it. Those callouses we earned navigating shutdowns, supply disruptions, and remote work? They’re the same tools we need to lead through the next cycle.
What our people need now isn’t certainty; it’s confidence. Not the kind that pretends to have all the answers, but the kind that says, whatever comes, we’ll handle it.
That confidence comes from preparation. It has multiple plans, not one. It’s knowing which levers to pull when conditions change and acting before you’re forced to.
The U.S. Still Holds the Cards
Despite the noise, the U.S. remains the world’s dominant economy. About a quarter of global GDP, according to Alex’s analysis. China, though large, is still roughly one-third smaller and losing momentum due to demographics and slowing growth.
That strength explains why the administration feels emboldened to use economic power more aggressively on the global stage. You might not like every policy move but understanding why they’re doing it helps you anticipate what’s next.
This isn’t just a trade story. It’s a power story. And leaders who grasp that context make better business decisions. Especially when it comes to pricing, sourcing, and long-term investment.
A Multipolar World
Alex described a world that no longer revolves around one or two superpowers. Four players now drive global behavior:
- The U.S. and its democratic allies
- Autocratic regimes like China and Russia
- The “Global South” — countries that align transactionally, not ideologically
- High-tech giants like Microsoft, Meta, and SpaceX—corporate actors with country-level influence
This last category may be the most disruptive. When a company consumes electricity like a nation or negotiates with foreign ministers, it reshapes how power operates. For business leaders, that means volatility isn’t temporary, it’s structural.
Planning for Complexity
So how do you plan in a world that refuses to sit still?
Alex introduced a framework from the military: VUCA — Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity. The idea is to “war-game” your strategy. Don’t wait to see what happens, design playbooks for multiple outcomes.
If tariffs jump to 25%, what’s your move? If they fall to 10%, how do you capitalize? If your supplier gets caught in a trade crossfire, what’s Plan B?
This kind of thinking separates the proactive from the reactive. It’s not about predicting the future, it’s about being ready for whichever version shows up.
Someone in your organization should own this process. It doesn’t have to be a department. It just has to be someone committed to scanning the horizon, applying new data to your business, and asking, what does this change for us?
The Hard Truth
Waiting for clarity isn’t a strategy, it’s a delay tactic. The leaders who thrive through complexity aren’t faster because they know more. They’re faster because they’ve rehearsed.
We’re not getting an easy economy in 2026. But the good news is, we’ve done hard before.
Key Takeaway
Complexity isn’t chaos—it’s a signal to act. The leaders who prepare multiple scenarios, make decisions based on data, and project calm confidence will move first while others freeze.