2025 Business & Economic Outlook - Part 3 of 5
(Based on insights from Alex Chausovsky, Bundy Group, shared at Allied Executives’ 2025 Business & Economic Outlook)
Every headline seems to predict a recession. But as Alex Chausovsky showed us, there’s no data to back it up.
GDP, industrial production, and leading indicators all point to something different: not decline, but sideways movement. And that’s often harder to manage than a boom or bust.
The Record Nobody Noticed
Through mid-2025, the U.S. economy hit an inflation-adjusted record high. You wouldn’t know it from the mood in most boardrooms, but the data doesn’t lie.
Growth has slowed to around 2.1%, the 20-year average, but that’s not contraction. It’s equilibrium. It just feels like stagnation because we’ve been conditioned to expect acceleration or collapse.
Alex’s point was simple: the danger isn’t recession. It’s complacency.
The K-Shaped Reality
Not every industry is living in the same economy. The top 20% of earners are spending freely, while the middle and lower brackets are barely keeping up with inflation.
The same split shows up by sector:
Data centers and AI infrastructure are booming.
Manufacturing and construction are flat.
Most B2B spending has paused since “Liberation Day” in April 2025, when tariffs reversed business momentum.
If you’re serving fast-growth sectors like tech, you’re thriving. If you’re not, you’re fighting for every inch.
Leading Indicators: What They’re Saying
Alex highlighted three signals worth watching:
- Capacity Utilization (6-month lead): Flat — no expansion, no contraction.
- Copper Futures (9-month lead): Sideways — a global indicator of manufacturing demand.
- Purchasing Managers Index (12-month lead): Neutral — not booming, but not warning of decline.
The verdict: more of the same through mid-2026.
Why Sideways Is Harder
Booms and busts force decisions. Sideways markets test discipline.
Growth won’t come from market tailwinds; it’ll come from execution. That means identifying real opportunities, protecting margins, and acting decisively while others hesitate.
In Alex’s words, “You can still hit your growth goals—but the market won’t hand them to you.”
Labor, Immigration, and Reality Checks
The labor market is tightening again. Job growth has slowed, but layoffs remain at pre-pandemic lows. Companies are simply pausing new hires—not cutting.
The bigger issue is demographic. Starting in 2026, without immigration reform, the U.S. labor force begins to shrink. That’s not a political issue; it’s arithmetic.
Leaders should be automating what they can, retaining who they must, and building relationships with trade schools and technical programs before the shortage becomes severe.
Key Takeaway
A sideways economy doesn’t reward the loudest or boldest—it rewards the most disciplined. Growth in 2026 will belong to leaders who execute with precision while others wait for the next clear signal that never comes.