For years, growth meant expansion. Today, it means endurance. The Business & Economic Outlook panel made it clear: the companies succeeding in 2025 aren't chasing growth at any cost—they're building it on discipline.
The M&A market proves the point. Everyone predicted 2025 would be a banner year based on interest rate visibility, stagnant private equity deployment, and demographic pressures forcing succession decisions. It hasn't played out that way.
Uncertainty kills deals. Unlike 3-4 years ago when private equity would buy broken companies and fix them, today they're only interested in de-risked, high-quality assets. Service companies unaffected by tariffs are seeing the most action. That pot of private equity money exists—it's just chasing fewer, better targets.
From Speed to Sustainability
The economy is still full of opportunity, but the rules of pursuit have changed. Leaders are thinking differently about capital, cash, and capacity. Growth for growth's sake is out. Measured momentum is in. They're funding fewer initiatives—but executing them better.
That discipline shows up in how they invest. Strategic spending now means proving ROI before pulling the trigger, not just hoping the market catches up later. The companies thriving in this environment are deliberate: spending where data supports it, trimming where it doesn't.
Brett Larson from Messerli Kramer described their growth trajectory since 2015, driven partly by market consolidation. As law firms and banks get acquired and priced out of the Midwest middle market, they've captured market share. But their biggest barrier to growth isn't capital or market conditions—it's people and talent.
That forced them to rethink everything about workflow and technology integration. They adopted AI early, not because the technology was perfect, but to train their people on skills they'd need. Now they use it for quality control and efficiency—starting with 80% work product that gets expert review versus building from scratch.
The parallel to manufacturing is striking. Marvin Windows automated most of their factory over five years. They're in a town of 1,800 people and employ 2,200. The math doesn't work without automation. But they didn't eliminate jobs—they elevated them. They need robotics engineers, software developers, and artisans. The rote work gets automated. The skilled work gets amplified.
Confidence as Currency
The lending and investment landscape remains cautious. Access to capital hasn't disappeared—it's just more discerning. The businesses earning favorable terms are those with clean books, strong processes, and clear communication with their banks and investors.
Joe Chybowski from Bridgewater Bank noted that yield curve normalization has helped community banks become more active after struggling with inverted rates. Deregulation is creating more flexibility. But banks expect scenario-based planning now—they want to understand your sensitivities to different rate environments, policy changes, and tariff exposures.
Confidence has become a form of currency. Leaders who can articulate a plan, show consistent performance, and react quickly to changing conditions are commanding trust—and trust converts to opportunity.
Brian Eder from Voyage Wealth Architects was direct about investment advice: anyone who tells you where to invest because it will be best next year is lying. Nobody knows. The only true answer is to invest in places that help you achieve the best outcome for whatever you're trying to maximize.
Same company you're running today would need different investments if you're selling in two years versus retiring in fifteen. It's a hyper-individual answer, and anybody claiming to have a crystal ball is full of it.
Growth Beyond the Numbers
But growth isn't purely financial. Cultural and operational maturity matter just as much. The best-performing companies align their teams around what success means right now. They don't chase trends. They reinforce fundamentals.
If you're thinking about selling, start planning 3-5 years before you're ready to go to market. The companies that maximize value aren't the ones that decide to sell and then prepare. They're the ones that build sellable businesses whether they sell or not.
Key elements include a strong balance sheet that means you don't have to sell, leaders who can run the business if something happens to you short-term, and the ability to time the macro environment for your industry.
The private business market is the opposite of efficient public markets. Same company can see a 100% price delta from two different buyers. Understanding that dynamic and positioning yourself to capture maximum value takes time.
With expanded Qualified Small Business Stock benefits and new estate planning opportunities, your exit strategy should factor in these provisions now. Reorganizations can position you to take advantage of benefits even if you established your business years ago—but only with advance planning.
When leadership, finance, and people strategy all move in sync, growth feels less like risk and more like rhythm.
What This Means for You
Build a sellable business even if you're not selling. The same disciplines that make a company attractive to buyers make it stronger and more profitable for you today.
Start AI adoption now, even if the technology isn't perfect. Train your people on the skills while the tools are developing. Companies waiting for perfect solutions will be years behind competitors who learned by doing.
Focus AI on freeing people for high-value work requiring judgment, relationships, and strategic thinking. Automate the rote work nobody wants to do but somebody has to do.
Strengthen your banking relationships with clear communication and scenario planning. If your bank was acquired and decisions now run through out-of-state offices, evaluate whether a local community bank makes sense.
Run multiple scenario models for growth investments. Prove ROI with data before pulling the trigger on major spending.
If tariffs impact your business, work with legal counsel to explore restructuring opportunities that separate goods from services in your pricing model.
Meet with advisors now to understand how current tax law impacts your exit strategy—whether that exit is to a third party, key employees, or family members.
Lesson Learned: Sustainable growth isn't about speed—it's about alignment. When strategy, culture, and capital decisions move together, confidence compounds.
Find Your Tribe
Uncertainty is here to stay. But the businesses that thrive won't be the ones predicting the future perfectly. They'll be the ones that build strong fundamentals, invest in the right people, stay close to their advisors, and execute relentlessly while others get distracted by headlines.
The opportunity isn't in waiting for clarity that never comes. It's in surrounding yourself with leaders who've navigated these cycles before and are willing to share what actually works.
That's what we do at Allied Executives. Our peer groups bring together CEOs and business owners who share real challenges, real solutions, and real results. No fluff. No theory. Just tested wisdom from people in the trenches with you.
Ready to finally find your tribe? Learn more about Why Allied →