2025 Business & Economic Outlook - Part 5 of 5
(Based on insights from Alex Chausovsky, Bundy Group, shared at Allied Executives’ 2025 Business & Economic Outlook)
By the end of Alex Chausovsky’s talk, the question wasn’t what’s happening? It was what do we do about it?
Here’s the answer: plan for multiple futures, use data as your compass, and focus only on what you can control.
Leading Indicators: Your Early Warning System
Alex’s most practical insight was about leading indicators—the data that predicts what comes next.
Every business has them: quote activity, website engagement, supplier pricing, customer inventories. Find the ones that consistently move before your core results, determine the time lag, and track them religiously.
When you see them shift, act before everyone else does.
Scenario Planning that Actually Works
Most companies create three scenarios—best, worst, and middle—and file them away. Alex argued that real scenario planning is active:
- Identify the 2–3 variables that matter most (tariffs, demand, labor).
- Build realistic scenarios around those variables.
- Define trigger points that activate pre-built responses.
- Assign ownership for monitoring and updating the plan.
The point isn’t to predict—it’s to rehearse. When change hits, you move with precision instead of panic.
What to Focus On
Alex closed with three priorities for 2026:
Decide with Data, Not Emotion.
Gut instinct is a lagging indicator. Build systems that give you visibility into what’s really happening.
Plan for Multiple Futures.
Waiting for certainty wastes time. Create and practice scenarios so you’re never starting from zero.
Control What You Can.
You can’t dictate tariffs, inflation, or global events. You can control costs, pricing, customer communication, and talent retention.
Looking Ahead
The labor shortage is coming fast. AI adoption is accelerating even faster. And the “2030s depression” narratives? Alex dismissed them as noise. The real threat isn’t collapse—it’s complacency.
The leaders who thrive won’t be the most optimistic or the most fearful. They’ll be the most prepared.
Key Takeaway
2026 won’t reward prediction—it will reward preparation. Use data to see around corners, build scenarios you can activate fast, and keep your focus on what’s within reach. Everything else is noise.